Subj : HVYRAIN: Excessive Rainfall Discussion
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 14 2024 07:54:54

FOUS30 KWBC 140754
QPFERD

Excessive Rainfall Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EST Thu Nov 14 2024

Day 1
Valid 12Z Thu Nov 14 2024 - 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Maturing surface cyclone off the VA/NC coast will amplify
rainfall prospects over the VA Tidewater into Eastern NC late this
afternoon and evening with a developing axis of deformation driving
elevated convective concerns in the aforementioned areas. Totals
between 1.5-3" are forecast within these zones with some minor
flooding possible over urban zones and the immediate coast,
coinciding with coastal flooding likely occurring. Rainfall rates
will fall short of the necessary criteria to meet FFG exceedance,
however a non-zero threat will exist for flash flood concerns
across Northern NC into Southern and Southeast VA in urban zones
that are more prone to flooding prospects. This is still below the
5% threshold necessary for flash flooding leading to a continued
nil ERO, but non-zero threat.

Kleebauer


Day 2
Valid 12Z Fri Nov 15 2024 - 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 3
Valid 12Z Sat Nov 16 2024 - 12Z Sun Nov 17 2024

The probability of rainfall exceeding flash flood guidance is less
than 5 percent.

Kleebauer


Day 1 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/94epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6Itm-Q56MnehL1s-R3SqoAx91M_0jc9BID1Xj2FxpL_J=
5FnTcT-gSRK_TJ_4x_-scGuMYW7WXzz-HZ52xwhEmwb7zaI$=20
Day 2 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/98epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6Itm-Q56MnehL1s-R3SqoAx91M_0jc9BID1Xj2FxpL_J=
5FnTcT-gSRK_TJ_4x_-scGuMYW7WXzz-HZ52xwhEiuFBBw4$=20
Day 3 threat area: https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.go=
v/qpf/99epoints.txt__;!!DZ3fjg!6Itm-Q56MnehL1s-R3SqoAx91M_0jc9BID1Xj2FxpL_J=
5FnTcT-gSRK_TJ_4x_-scGuMYW7WXzz-HZ52xwhElYjQelg$=20

=3D =3D =3D
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