Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 14 2024 05:43:58

ACUS01 KWNS 140543
SWODY1
SPC AC 140542

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1142 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible along the coasts of
far eastern South Carolina and eastern North Carolina tonight,
posing a risk of tornadoes and severe gusts.

....Eastern Carolinas/Eastern Gulf Coast...
A negatively-tilted mid-level trough will move eastward into the
southern Appalachians today, and into the Carolinas tonight. A few
strong storms will be possible today across the Florida Panhandle.
Low-level moisture advection ahead of the trough will occur today in
the Carolinas. By evening, a moist airmass, with surface dewpoints
in the 60s F, will be in place over much of the eastern Carolinas.
Thunderstorms are expected to form early this evening in far eastern
South Carolina, in response to warm advection and strong large-scale
ascent. This convection is forecast to move northeastward along the
coast of North Carolina from mid evening into the overnight. Strong
low-level shear should support a marginal severe threat near the
coast. A brief tornado and a few strong gusts will be possible. The
greatest tornado threat should occur after midnight in the vicinity
of Cape Hatteras, where low-level shear is forecast to become
maximized in the 06Z to 09Z time frame.

...Broyles/Thornton.. 11/14/2024

$$

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