Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 14 2024 00:49:26

ACUS01 KWNS 140049
SWODY1
SPC AC 140047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Wed Nov 13 2024

Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND ALONG PARTS OF THE WEST COAST...

....SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms, associated with a marginal threat for
tornadoes and wind damage, will be possible across the central Gulf
Coast this evening. Isolated severe gusts will also be possible
along parts of the West Coast.

....Central Gulf Coast...
A mid-level trough, evident on water vapor imagery, is moving into
the Ark-La-Tex. Further to the east, a lead shortwave trough is
moving through the central Gulf Coast states, where a moist airmass
is in place. Surface dewpoints across the central Gulf Coast region
range from the mid 70s F near the coast to the mid 60s F over much
of southwestern Alabama. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing near
the moist axis. The stronger cells are expected to move
northeastward across far southern Mississippi and into southwest
Alabama this evening. RAP forecasts soundings in far southwest
Alabama at 03Z have MLCAPE near 750 J/kg, 0-6 km shear in the 35 to
40 knot range, and some directional shear in the low to mid-levels.
This should be sufficient for a marginal severe threat this evening.
A potential for isolated severe gusts may exist with semi-organized
line segments. A marginal tornado threat will also be possible with
the more discrete rotating cells.

....West Coast...
A mid-level trough is evident on water vapor imagery over southwest
Oregon and northern California. Mid-level moisture associated with
the trough, large-scale ascent and steep lapse rates are
contributing to thunderstorm potential along the coast of northern
California, Oregon and Washington. Some of the storms may become
strong enough to mix low-level winds of about 35 to 40 knots down to
the surface. A few gusts could approach severe limits this evening.

...Broyles.. 11/14/2024

$$

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