Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 13 2024 17:27:54 ACUS02 KWNS 131727 SWODY2 SPC AC 131726 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 13 2024 Valid 141200Z - 151200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... A few strong storms will be possible near the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle early on Thursday, and later across coastal parts of the Carolinas Thursday evening into Friday morning. Organized severe potential appears relatively low at this time. ....Synopsis... A negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the Upper Midwest through the TN Valley early Thursday morning before continuing eastward across the OH Valley while developing a closed mid-level circulation. By early Friday morning, the resulting upper low is expected to be over the Mid-Atlantic with enhanced mid-level flow throughout its base from the TN Valley to off the Southeast coast. In response to this evolution, a surface low is expected to deepen as it moves northeastward over the coastal Carolinas. At the same time, upper ridging is expected to build across the Plains in response to a deepening upper trough forecast to move over the West Coast late Thursday night/early Friday morning. Isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Pacific Northwest coast, fostered by cold temperatures aloft and persistent large-scale forcing for ascent. ....Central Gulf Coast into the FL Panhandle... A triple-point low will likely be centered over central AL early Thursday morning, with a cold front extending southwestward from this low off the AL coast and a warm front extending east-southeastward across central GA. This warm front is expected to become more stationary throughout the day as the dry and cool airmass to its north remains in place. The surface low and associated front are still expected to continue eastward, with this overall evolution confining the warm sector to south of central GA. The low-level jet is expected to weaken throughout the day while also remaining displaced north of the warm sector. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing along and ahead of the cold front early Thursday morning. However, the evolution described above is expected to result in gradually diminishing coverage while also limiting storm organization/strength. A few stronger storms are possible early, but overall severe potential appears too low to introduce any probabilities. ....Coastal Carolinas... Triple-point low initially over central AL is forecast to progress eastward along the stationary front across GA before then continuing northeastward across the eastern SC and coastal NC along a developing warm frontal zone. Low-level moisture advection will precede this low, with low to mid 60s dewpoints likely penetrating slightly inland across the eastern Carolinas. Even with this moisture advection, buoyancy will be limited by poor lapse rates, with some guidance even suggesting surface-based convective inhibition persists throughout Thursday night/early Friday morning. Most favorable location for a few stronger storms is expected to be near the surface low, where mesoscale lift will augment the larger scale forcing, helping to overcome any remaining convective inhibition. Moderate deep-layer shear will be in place throughout the region, suggesting any deep updrafts could become more organized. However, overall severe coverage is expected to remain too low to introduce any probabilities. ...Mosier.. 11/13/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .