Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 13 2024 05:30:20 ACUS01 KWNS 130530 SWODY1 SPC AC 130528 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 PM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND ALONG THE WEST COAST... ....SUMMARY... A few strong to severe thunderstorms may occur today across the lower Mississippi Valley, posing a risk for isolated severe gusts. A potential for severe gusts could also develop along parts of the West Coast. ....Lower Mississippi Valley... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern Plains today, as a low-level jet strengthens ahead of the system, over the lower to mid Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a moist airmass will be in place over the lower Mississippi Valley where surface dewpoints will be from the mid 60s to lower 70s F. As moisture advection continues this morning into afternoon, a pocket of instability is forecast to develop over parts of eastern Louisiana and western Mississippi. Thunderstorms appear likely to develop within this pocket of instability around midday, with additional storms developing further to the east in the vicinity of the central Gulf Coast. RAP and NAM forecast soundings in the lower Mississippi Valley suggest that MLCAPE could peak across southeast Louisiana in the 1500 to 2000 J/kg range around 21Z. At that time near the instability max, 0-6 km shear is forecast to be near 30 knots. Some directional is evident below 850 mb but lapse rates at low and mid-levels are forecast to be poor. This environment could support a marginal wind-damage threat associated with rotating storms or semi-organized line segments. A marginal tornado threat could also develop if any rotating storms can move through the stronger instability while remaining discrete. The marginal severe threat may continue into early evening as a line segment moves into the central Gulf Coast. ....West Coast... A shortwave trough is forecast to approach the West Coast today and move inland late this afternoon into this evening. Ahead of the trough, strong large-scale ascent will support isolated thunderstorm development along the coasts of northern California, Oregon and Washington. Model forecasts suggest that flow at 850 mb will be around 30 knots, with 700-500 mb lapse rates peaking near 7 C/km. This environment could be favorable for marginally severe gusts mainly after 21Z as the trough approaches the coast. The potential for isolated severe gusts may continue into the evening, as the trough moves inland. ...Broyles/Thornton.. 11/13/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .