Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Nov 12 2024 12:54:19 ACUS01 KWNS 121254 SWODY1 SPC AC 121252 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0652 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2024 Valid 121300Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle vicinity this evening, perhaps accompanied by some risk for hail and gusty winds. ....Southern High Plains... An upper trough over the Great Basin will advance eastward across the Rockies today, reaching the Plains late tonight into early Wednesday morning. Large-scale ascent preceding this feature will encourage modest surface cyclogenesis across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Low-level moisture will return northward today over portions of the southern High Plains, although its depth and quality will remain limited. It appears unlikely that convection will develop this afternoon across northwest TX into the OK/TX Panhandles, as a cap and weak instability should inhibit initiation. A somewhat better opportunity for thunderstorms will exist this evening across this area, mainly around/after 00-04Z, as warm advection and lift associated with a strengthening low-level jet increases, and as a surface cold front overtakes the lee trough. While MUCAPE is expected to remain rather weak (generally 500-1000 J/kg or less), strong deep-layer shear will support organized updrafts with any sustained convection. Isolated hail appears to be the main threat, as thunderstorms should have a tendency to remain slightly elevated. But, some chance for strong/gusty winds may also exist. The window for severe hail should remain small in space and time this evening, as convection will likely grow upscale fairly quickly. Even so, small hail may occur farther north/east into parts of KS and OK overnight into early Wednesday morning. ...Gleason/Bentley.. 11/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .