Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Nov 12 2024 05:34:21 ACUS01 KWNS 120534 SWODY1 SPC AC 120532 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE TEXAS SOUTH PLAINS AND PANHANDLE...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ....SUMMARY... A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of the Texas South Plains and Panhandle vicinity this evening, perhaps accompanied by some risk for severe weather. ....Synopsis... The westerlies appear likely to remain a bit more progressive across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into western North America than farther downstream, from near the Atlantic Seaboard through the Atlantic. Within this regime, another significant mid-level trough, with at least a couple of embedded short wave perturbations, is forecast to approach the Pacific coast later today through tonight. As this occurs, a fairly vigorous perturbation within the southern portion of a splitting preceding trough is likely to continue east of the southern Great Basin, across and east of the southern Rockies by daybreak Wednesday. An associated cold front probably will overtake modest lee surface troughing across central and southern portions of the high plains by late tonight. Before it does, boundary-layer moisture return in a narrow plume emanating from the Rio Grande Valley, beneath steepening lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, might contribute to a corridor of weak to modest destabilization by late this afternoon across the Texas South Plains into Panhandle vicinity. ....Southern Great Plains... Near the leading edge of a narrow plume of elevated mixed-layer air forecast to advect north-northeastward through southern portions of the high plains, models indicate that differential surface heating may contribute to a strengthening low-level baroclinic zone across parts of the Texas South Plains and Panhandle by late this afternoon. This will probably become a focus for strengthening near-surface warm advection by early this evening, downstream of the short wave impulse progressing across the southern Rockies. This is likely to coincide with increasing low-level moisture return, which might include boundary-layer dew points as high as the lower 60s F near the immediate vicinity of the surface boundary, southward through the Texas South Plains. With regard to potential for severe storm development late this afternoon into tonight, the signal remains muted in the latest high resolution ensemble output and associated machine learning guidance. However, given the potential for at least a narrow corridor of modest boundary-layer destabilization, which may include mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg, large-scale forcing for ascent and strengthening shear appear conducive to organized convective development. There appears a window of opportunity for the evolution of one or two boundary-layer based supercells across parts of the Texas South Plains into Panhandle, before a more general increase in thunderstorm development ensues northeastward across parts of Oklahoma and Kansas later tonight. Rooted within an increasingly elevated warm advected regime, forecast soundings suggest minimal potential for a continuing severe hail threat, once any possible boundary-layer based convective development diminishes. ...Kerr/Thornton.. 11/12/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .