Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 12 2024 00:48:51

ACUS01 KWNS 120048
SWODY1
SPC AC 120047

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0647 PM CST Mon Nov 11 2024

Valid 120100Z - 121200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible through
tonight.

....01Z Update...

....Pacific Coast...
A mid-level tongue of cold air (including 500 mb temperatures of -24
to -28C) continues to migrate inland of the Pacific coast.  It
appears that the axis of coldest air is in the process of shifting
to the east of the Sierra Nevada and Cascades.  However, latest
model output suggests that the mid-level temperatures may remain
cold enough to support instability sufficient for a continuing risk
of occasional weak convection capable of producing lightning, mainly
to the west of the Cascades, through about 06-08Z.

....Lower Great Lakes...
Occasional lightning flashes have been evident with convection
developing beneath a lower/mid-level cold pool associated with a
digging short wave trough across southern Ontario into the lee of
Lakes Ontario and Erie.  However, with diurnal cooling underway and
low-level cold advection ongoing to the lee of the lower Great
Lakes, forecast soundings suggest that this activity is unlikely to
persist beyond another hour or so.

...Kerr.. 11/12/2024

$$

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