Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 11 2024 00:51:58

ACUS01 KWNS 110051
SWODY1
SPC AC 110050

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0650 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 110100Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for thunderstorms will remain low across much of the U.S.
through tonight.

....01Z Outlook Update...
Boundary-layer destabilization beneath the mid-level cold core now
approaching southwestern Ontario and the Lake Huron/Georgian Bay
vicinity has remained quite weak, with warmer layers aloft tending
to minimize lightning production in widely scattered ongoing
convection.  Probabilities for additional convection capable of
producing lightning will become increasingly negligible as the upper
impulse progresses into Ontario through 03-05Z.

Otherwise, low-level moistening on southerly return flow has
contributed to a corridor of weak pre-frontal boundary-layer
destabilization across the lower Mississippi into lower Ohio
Valleys.  Beneath weak mid-level troughing now shifting east of the
middle/lower Mississippi Valley, forcing for ascent may be
sufficient to support some further increase in weak thunderstorm
development this evening across northeastern Mississippi into
portions of south central Kentucky.  This will tend to advect
east-northeastward into a less unstable environment as
boundary-layer instability wanes to the west with the loss of
daytime heating, leading to diminishing potential for thunderstorms
late this evening into the overnight hours.

...Kerr.. 11/11/2024

$$

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