Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 10 2024 19:55:57

ACUS01 KWNS 101955
SWODY1
SPC AC 101954

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0154 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

....20Z Update...
Other than minor changes to the general thunder area based on
current observations, the previous forecast reasoning remains valid.

...Wendt.. 11/10/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024/

....Discussion...
An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast
to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper
Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St.
Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the
period.  As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly
progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region
today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z
(Monday morning).

Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse
rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability.  While a
more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the
Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly
advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael
sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear
precludes appreciable severe potential.  Farther north, stronger
flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to
areas farther south.  As such, severe weather is not anticipated.

$$

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