Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 10 2024 16:40:59

ACUS01 KWNS 101640
SWODY1
SPC AC 101639

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1039 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

CORRECTED TO CHANGE SUNDAY TO MONDAY

....SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms appears minimal through tonight.

....Discussion...
An upper low now crossing the Upper Mississippi Valley is forecast
to gradually devolve into an open wave, as it crosses the Upper
Great Lakes region and shifts across the Ottawa River and St.
Lawrence Valleys, and Lower Great Lakes through the end of the
period.  As this occurs, a surface cold front will similarly
progress eastward across the Upper Great Lakes and Midwest region
today, reaching the central and southern Appalachians by 11/12Z
(Monday morning).

Ahead of the front, a relatively moist boundary layer but weak lapse
rates aloft will permit only weak warm-sector instability.  While a
more tropical low-level airmass will reside in the vicinity of the
Lower Mississippi Valley, in part due to east-southeasterly
advection associated with the presence of Tropical Storm Rafael
sitting nearly stationary over the central Gulf, weak shear
precludes appreciable severe potential.  Farther north, stronger
flow aloft will be offset by lower theta-e/weak CAPE as compared to
areas farther south.  As such, severe weather is not anticipated.

...Goss/Lyons.. 11/10/2024

$$

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