Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 10 2024 12:45:07

AWUS01 KWNH 101245
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-101613-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1149
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
744 AM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

Areas affected...Central LA into Southwest MS

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101243Z - 101613Z

Summary...A localized flash flood risk will continue across
portions of central Louisiana and southwest Mississippi into mid
morning.

Discussion...Radar imagery indicates heavy rainfall cores are
persisting a bit longer than anticipated over portions of central
LA into southwest MS this morning. The 12z sounding from New
Orleans is indicative of the upstream environment feeding into
this axis of rainfall...and it shows a saturated profile up to
500mb with PWs around 2.1". The sounding dries significantly above
500mb, but a moist and skinny CAPE profile below that continues to
support efficient warm rain processes. Thus despite a lack of cold
cloud tops, this activity continues to be capable of hourly
rainfall around 2".

Generally still expecting a downward trend in rainfall coverage
and intensity as the morning progresses. The overall environment
should continue to trend less conducive for excessive rainfall
with lower level convergence gradually weakening and subsidence
and drying continuing to increase in the mid to upper levels. With
that said, recent radar and satellite imagery suggests a localized
flash flood risk will continue for a few more hours. Recent HRRR
runs have started to catch on to a bit more persistence of this
activity, although these 10z and 11z runs are too far northwest
with the rainfall max. Overall expecting additional rainfall of
2-5" over the next couple hours, with the heaviest amounts likely
staying pretty localized in nature.

Chenard

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!8etVTqWRZso_51Tg4JcXyMSXXv5seVfeDO1t7GsmYnCzbDxJ7GmpfzHf55OoepDXA0tw=
6EeDJ18SnA13Sqs-81gfnxs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...LIX...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   31679099 31629054 31169035 30779045 30399092=20
            30299157 30369195 30689223 31189194 31539141=20
=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20

=3D =3D =3D
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