Subj : DAY48SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 10 2024 09:26:25

ACUS48 KWNS 100926
SWOD48
SPC AC 100924

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0324 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

....DISCUSSION...
Predictability concerns that are evident on D3/Tuesday appear to
affect the extended period. Non-GEFS/GFS models support a
slower/southward evolution of a shortwave trough across the central
states into the East on D4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. The 00Z
deterministic ECMWF/UKMET are quite similar with this scenario.
While the surface cyclone reflection may be weak, rich Gulf moisture
coupled with an increase in low-level flow may be sufficient for at
least a low-probability severe threat centered on the Lower MS
Valley to the northeast Gulf Coast/southern Deep South.

Late week, there continues to be above-average agreement with a
positive-tilt longwave trough developing from the Canadian Prairies
to off the southern CA coast. Despite typical predictability
concerns with the handling of embedded shortwave impulses, the
primary impactful difference is with the degree of moisture return
across the Great Plains. Non-GEFS/GFS models have trended towards
poorer-quality return flow in the wake of the leading shortwave
trough on D4-5 and subsequent continental air mass intrusion into
the Gulf. As such, despite SPC and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance
depicting 5-15 percent severe probabilities next weekend, other
models seemingly suggest a 5 percent or less threat for now.

...Grams.. 11/10/2024

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