Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 10 2024 08:15:56 ACUS03 KWNS 100815 SWODY3 SPC AC 100814 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN A PART OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe hail is possible across a portion of the southern High Plains on Tuesday evening. ....Southern High Plains vicinity... A zonal upper flow regime over the southern states will buckle as a full-latitude trough progresses across the West and likely reaches the northern Great Plains to southern High Plains by 12Z Wednesday. Guidance differs with the evolution of individual shortwave impulses embedded within the broad trough. Non-NCEP guidance prefers amplification of the primary impulse within the basal portion of the trough. This would result in pronounced mid-level height falls overspreading the southern High Plains Tuesday evening/night. Low-level moisture quality will be lacking, owing to the continued presence of TC Rafael in the western Gulf. Modified moisture return will emanate northward from northeast Mexico. A plume of low to mid 50s surface dew points should reach the TX Panhandle by late day. This may yield a narrow ribbon of meager/weak buoyancy (MLCAPE around 500 J/kg), ahead of a sharpening surface trough. Confidence is low in whether surface-based storms will become sustained prior to sunset, given the limited buoyancy and rather dry mid-levels within the west-southwesterly flow regime. More probable convective development is expected during the evening as large-scale ascent increases with approach of the trough and strengthening low-level warm theta-e advection. With favorable speed shear in the cloud-bearing layer, a few elevated supercells may form with a threat for hail. Severe hail magnitudes should be confined to the early period of sustained-storm activity, but small hail could persist east-northeast Tuesday night. ...Grams.. 11/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .