Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sun Nov 10 2024 05:17:24 ACUS01 KWNS 100517 SWODY1 SPC AC 100515 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 PM CST Sat Nov 09 2024 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ....SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the U.S. today through tonight. ....Synopsis... Models indicate that low-amplitude ridging will build in mid/upper levels across the northern Mexican Plateau through portions of the southern Great Plains and eastern Gulf Coast states during this period. Otherwise, the leading edge of a stronger/more progressive belt of westerlies across the mid-latitude Pacific is forecast to approach the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, it appears that a remnant low, which has recently emerged from the Southwest, will accelerate rapidly eastward across the Upper Midwest through the lower Great Lakes, in advance of an approaching short wave impulse digging southeast of the Canadian Prairies. This may be accompanied by appreciable surface cyclogenesis across and northeast of the lower Great Lakes region by late tonight. While the trailing cold front will be preceded by a moistening southerly low-level return flow across the lower Ohio Valley into lower Great Lakes region, forecast soundings indicate that weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates and a residual cool/stable surface-based layer will inhibit destabilization through much of the evolving warm sector. ....Mid South/Tennessee Valley vicinity... South of the more substantively deepening surface troughing to the north-northeast of the lower Ohio Valley, models do indicate that low-level moistening may contribute to a corridor of boundary-layer destabilization across northern Mississippi through western Tennessee and adjacent western Kentucky by early this afternoon. This probably will be limited by warm layers aloft, but CAPE may exceed 500 J/kg and contribute to gradually intensifying thunderstorm development through mid/late afternoon. Beneath 35-50 kt west-southwesterly flow in the 700-500 mb layer, deep-layer shear may contribute to organization. However, thermodynamic profiles do not appear particularly conducive to severe hail, and modest to weak low-level flow and lapse rates still seem likely to limit the risk for severe wind gusts, before storms weaken this evening. ...Kerr/Thornton.. 11/10/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .