Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sun Nov 10 2024 03:28:27

AWUS01 KWNH 100328
FFGMPD
MSZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-100900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1147
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1027 PM EST Sat Nov 09 2024

Areas affected...Southwest to Central Louisiana...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 100330Z - 100900Z

SUMMARY...Stationary axis of isentropic ascent/stationary tropical
showers likely to maintain ongoing flash flooding across central
Louisiana into the middle overnight period.

DISCUSSION...Most meteorological parameters are continue to reduce
with time; temperatures are coming down with loss of day-time
heating and low level moisture has dropped into the low 70s, so
instability is limited to this limited area of mid 70s over low
70s Tds, with MLCAPE in the 500-1000 range.  RADAR and GOES-E
3.9um along with observations from VWP and surface obs suggest,
easterly flow is starting to slack over the southern Bayous of
central LA and adjacent Gulf slowly reducing deeper layer
convergence along the rainfall reinforced cold front.  Still, this
is weak WAA over a modestly steep frontal slope to continue to tap
weak convective development and moisture flux to support 1.5-2"/hr
rates, given the total PWats remain near record values in the low
2" range.  Storm related outflow/isallabaric may result in a few
embedded narrow cored cells that may occasionally tick above
2"/hr.=20=20

GOES-E WV shows cluster across SW to central LA remains at the
nose of a split in upper-level flow/diffluence from anticyclonic
outflow jet from Rafael over the northern Gulf and the
cyclonically curved polar jet across E TX into AR. This helps to
pull/stretch convective cores toward the northeast with weak
inflow, balance southeast propagation from inflow and slow
north-northeast cell motions to allow for very slow cell motion
with very weak northeastward motion along the isentropical
boundary and already flooded/lowered FFG values into far SW MS.=20
Given the compromised soils the additional 2-3" with localized 4"
maxima (in the embedded convective cores) will likely continue to
result in rapid inundation/flash flooding that is occurring from N
Calcasieu to Concordia parish.=20=20=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!-67ABM8ikrGdxIgEEnhMvIWna6qG-GpnX7ZbjtCy0sV7uKxnepzGDVrbq26swO1r9aTH=
F-EwAza0zYszhj4GLMUu1yo$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...JAN...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   32149228 32009174 31699148 31459150 31049181=20
            30609239 30319287 30159341 30399367 30859365=20
            31209353 31789309=20

=3D =3D =3D
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