Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 09 2024 16:08:22

ACUS01 KWNS 091608
SWODY1
SPC AC 091606

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1006 AM CST Sat Nov 09 2024

Valid 091630Z - 101200Z

....NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

....SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.

....Discussion...
An upper low centered over the northwestern Kansas area this morning
will shift northeastward through the period, reaching the
northwestern Iowa vicinity by 10/12Z.  As it does, an
occluded/weakening surface low will follow a similar trajectory.

As the system lifts northward, and the surface cold front weakens, a
moist/weakly sheared warm sector will prevail over the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee Valleys, and Gulf Coast region.  Farther
north, into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valley states, stronger
shear will reside, but with only weak/elevated instability.  As
such, though showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected ahead
of this system, convection will remain weak, and severe weather is
not anticipated.

...Goss/Dean.. 11/09/2024

$$

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