Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Sat Nov 09 2024 03:54:34 AWUS01 KWNH 090354 FFGMPD LAZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-090900- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1142 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1054 PM EST Fri Nov 08 2024 Areas affected...Eastern TX...Adj. Northwest/Western LA... Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 090400Z - 090900Z SUMMARY...Potential for intense but scattered clusters of cells with efficient rainfall production possibily resulting in localized flash flooding.=20 DISCUSSION...03z surface analysis depicts a triple-point low near FF4 and TYR at eastern-most bulge in the progressive cold front across N Texas through to the Central Texas Coastal Plain. An ill-defined stationary front extends generally due east and demarcates sfc Tds in the high upper 60s/low 70s from lower values northward in NE TX. The upper-low pressing eastward and associated height-falls are diminishing with its filling and so low level response in wind flow has seen a marked decrease to 20-25kts across the warm sector becoming more parallel to the cold front. Generally reducing flux and overall moisture convergence to maintain a broader area of ascent. However, this is resulting into increased orthogonal intersection with the the stationary front providing isentropic ascent/convergence where moisture remains most pooled. Total PWat values remain AoA 2", and while there is a weak connection to low level moisture from outer periphery of Rafael's moisture pool, the winds are generally below 15kts and so not really connecting to increase, but more weakly maintain the moisture across the warm sector. Unstable air in the warm sector still is more than sufficient to promote stronger updrafts, but given the weakening flow cells may become a bit more clustered/isolated. MLCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg, 2" PWs and 20-25kts should still support downdrafts capable of 1.75-2"/hr. The limiting factor is likely to be residency, probability of totals over 2.5-3" are likely to be limited to the strongest cores. Though there is some potential that expanding eastward development along the isentropic boundary into LA may allow for some repeating convection with slow eastward cell motions along the slowing front. As such, a widely scattered incident or two of 3-4" is not out of the realm of possibility and have the potential to result in localized flash flooding concerns with best chances along/downstream of the triple point and stationary front.=20=20 Gallina ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!7-jK2R8d8jFPIAVX4plhszCimB7X3SQBM7bAJKjsHGzftCGy6YPdq9AArZUqiUBjXN4A= XOBTOHsi6DD3THFAgchYqHY$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33329498 33259398 32849342 32319323 31709335=20 31069371 30549439 30479540 30959577 31799570=20 33049567=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .