Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Sat Nov 09 2024 00:36:47

ACUS01 KWNS 090036
SWODY1
SPC AC 090035

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0635 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 090100Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
EAST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms, with a potential for hail and severe wind
gusts, will be possible this evening across parts of east Texas.

....East Texas...
The latest water vapor imagery shows a mid-level low over far
northeastern New Mexico, with a broad band of maximized mid-level
moisture located from the Ark-La-Tex extending northwestward into
the central Plains. At the southern end of this band, scattered
thunderstorms are ongoing in parts of east Texas, ahead of a front
this is moving into east Texas. These storms are located along and
near an axis of instability, where surface dewpoints are in the
lower to mid 70s F. The RAP has MLCAPE maximized around 1600 J/kg in
southeast Texas, with the strongest instability extending northward
to just southeast of Dallas. A cluster of storms is located to the
north of the instability maximum, along an axis with locally higher
surface dewpoints near a max in precipitable water. RAP forecast
soundings near the max have 0-6 km shear around 40 knots, with some
directional shear in the lowest kilometer. The combination of
instability and shear may be enough to continue a marginal severe
threat this evening, mainly with the more discrete cells ahead of
the front. Marginally severe wind gusts and hail will be the primary
threats. The severe threat is expected to diminish by late evening.

...Broyles.. 11/09/2024

$$

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