Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 08 2024 22:27:01

AWUS01 KWNH 082226
FFGMPD
LAZ000-TXZ000-090425-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1141
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
525 PM EST Fri Nov 08 2024

Areas affected...much of northern and eastern TX...adjacenet
portions of northwestern LA

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 082225Z - 090425Z

Summary...1-2"/hr rainfall rates may result in 2-4" localized
totals, isolated to widely scattered instances of flash flooding.

Discussion...Convective coverage and intensity is increasing
across a narrow (but clearly defined) warm sector late this
afternoon, encompassing much of northern and eastern TX. The
mesoscale environment is characterized by ML CAPE of 500-1500
J/kg, PWATs of 1.6-1.8 inches (above the 90th percentile, per
FWD/SHV sounding climatology), and effective bulk shear of 30-40
kts. While forcing is rather limited (with DPVA and jet dynamics
displaced to the northwest with the occluded low), there is
sufficient moisture, instability, and shear to result in loosely
organized convection. The stronger cells are capable of localized
rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr, which may locally repeat to result in
some 2-4" totals. With antecedent conditions being relatively dry
(as 3-hr FFGs generally ranging from 2-4"), isolated to widely
scattered instances of flash flooding are considered possible.

Churchill

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_qFjaY6-bGcjlRihJsvbuldex8RDL9fI5kXEfqniJxyGoDHDQdZZ_kEJ1WTR9IfM3yDb=
Yv_a0oFQh492S_v5ufP3-Go$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...LCH...SHV...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   33479740 33369634 32969547 32679460 32449374=20
            31739351 30469417 30149512 30139626 30359702=20
            31259743 32129762 32899763=20

=3D =3D =3D
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