Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 08 2024 19:57:14 ACUS01 KWNS 081957 SWODY1 SPC AC 081955 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CST Fri Nov 08 2024 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening. The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is expected to be across North Texas. ....20Z Update... Relatively minor adjustments have been made to the outlook based on the progression of the surface boundary. Some uptick in coverage and intensity has been noted in southwestern Oklahoma into western North Texas. See MD #2220 for additional mesoscale details within that region. ...Wendt.. 11/08/2024 ..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024/ ....North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma... Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near 70 F. Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon. Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening, with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight. $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .