Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 08 2024 16:38:41

ACUS01 KWNS 081638
SWODY1
SPC AC 081637

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1037 AM CST Fri Nov 08 2024

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTH/NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Severe-thunderstorm threat exists from north Texas to the Hill
Country and parts of central/east Texas this afternoon and evening.
The most focused tornado, damaging-wind and hail potential is
expected to be across North Texas.

....North/Central Texas into far Southern Oklahoma...
Cloud cover and scattered showers/thunderstorms remain common across
the warm sector to the east of a surface low/triple point across the
Low Rolling Plains and southward-extending cold front, with
warm-sector surface dewpoints increasingly in the upper 60s to near
70 F.

Severe potential, including some risk for near-surface-based storms
within a narrow moist/modestly unstable corridor, will exist as far
north as the Red River vicinity, including western North Texas into
southwest/far south-central Oklahoma in proximity to the surface
low/warm front. However, the late-morning persistence of scattered
convection casts short-term uncertainty for the northward extent of
severe-conducive instability by early/mid-afternoon.

Somewhat stronger destabilization (to near 1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and
potentially deeper convection is anticipated into mid/late afternoon
farther south/southeast across broader parts of North Texas. Any
sustained, relatively discrete cells with prolonged access to
surface-based parcels in the warm sector, and especially interacting
with the warm front, may rotate with a threat for all hazards. This
includes potential for isolated severe hail, damaging winds as well
as a tornado risk. The associated theta-e/instability gradient is
expected to align northwest to southeast, very near or even across
the DFW Metroplex vicinity. Severe potential across north-central
toward northeast Texas should persist into at least mid-evening,
with a diminishing intensity trend into the late evening/overnight.

...Guyer/Dean.. 11/08/2024

$$

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