Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Fri Nov 08 2024 05:50:10 ACUS01 KWNS 080550 SWODY1 SPC AC 080548 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1148 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ....Texas... Strong upper trough, currently located over the southern Rockies, will begin to eject northeast later today as 500mb speed max translates across far West TX into the central High Plains. This upper low will progress into northeast CO/northwest KS by the end of the period. This evolution will result in 150-180m, 12hr height falls across the central High Plains, but negligible changes will be noted south of the Red River where severe probabilities are currently expressed. Boundary layer is quite stable across the High Plains into western OK/northwest TX. As a result, surface low will struggle as it is drawn north into the region of stronger dynamics, late in the period. Strong LLJ will also focus well north of the more buoyant air mass, primarily across northern OK into western KS. In the absence of stronger forcing, the primary mechanism for thunderstorm development across the warm sector will be weak frontal convergence acting on an environment that is moist and minimally inhibited. Some weak warm advection may also contribute to scattered convection atop the cooler boundary layer. Considerable amount of convection is currently ongoing from the Edwards Plateau, north into southern KS. This activity will gradually propagate east and should be ongoing at the start of the period. Forecast soundings suggest modest buoyancy will evolve across central TX into the southern portions of north-central TX by mid afternoon. Some supercell threat can be expected as deep-layer shear will be more than adequate for sustaining deep, rotating updrafts. Given the lack of large-scale support, severe coverage may remain somewhat isolated. Hail, wind, and perhaps a tornado or two can be expected with this activity. ...Darrow/Thornton.. 11/08/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .