Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 08 2024 03:21:12

AWUS01 KWNH 080321
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-080900-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1139
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1020 PM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

Areas affected...Western Oklahoma...Eastern Texas Panhandle...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 080320Z - 080900Z

SUMMARY...Scattered clusters of elevated thunderstorms with
1-1.5"/hr rates and possible training/repeating may result in a
scattered incident or two of localized flash flooding given lower
FFG values in the area.=20

DISCUSSION...GOES-E WV suite depicts an anomalously strong (2-3
standard anomaly) closed low across S CO/N NM with lead vorticity
center starting to retrograde over the top of the parent center of
the closed low.  This is resulting in downstream backing of deeper
layer flow, particularly in the 850-700mb layer providing
sufficient moisture flux and weakly steeper lapse rates for some
weak MUCAPE (about 500 J/kg or less) in proximity of the Red
River.  Solid/consistent convergence along the TROWAL axis that is
generally along 100W along with this instability has sprouted and
helped to maintain redevelopment of convective clusters across far
NW Texas into SW OK.  Solid moisture flux values on 30-35kts
850-700mb veering flow and CIRA LPW values at .33-.5" through the
layer (and totals of 1.25") has supported modest rainfall
production with these elevated cells.  Spots of 1-1.5"/hr rates
have been seen and current trends along the TX/OK border suggest
similar rates may be expected over the coming hours.=20

As the vorticity center continues to retrograde, deeper southerly
influence and stronger moisture flux from the south (see MPD 1138
for additional upstream development) should help to maintain
scattered potential for training/repeating elements through the
early overnight period and as such, spots of 1.5-3" are possible.
Ground conditions have been wetter than most areas across the
Plains recently, with slightly above average deep soil moisture
and so FFG values are slightly lower and within range of these
hourly and 3hrly totals.  As such, a spot or two of flash flooding
is considered possible.=20=20=20

Gallina

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!_2bhqxm_lXbf9rpwq-COCY8Dmg6MW0FYTV7OcZbasXcrpQD2RypU7YhE6RieIjP7RpqB=
_A6pc3kU70py0BFq0RqNNgk$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...LUB...OUN...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36979834 36889762 36069744 34949802 34369893=20
            33789999 33540105 34170178 35290116 36010043=20
            36719966 36959913=20

=3D =3D =3D
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