Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Fri Nov 08 2024 00:40:10

ACUS01 KWNS 080040
SWODY1
SPC AC 080038

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0638 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
remain possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

....01z Update...

Strong upper low has settled into southeast AZ, in line with model
guidance. This feature will soon begin to eject east as the main
mid-level speed max rotates through the base of the trough across
northern Mexico into far West TX/southeast NM by sunrise.
Considerable number of thunderstorms have developed well ahead of
this feature across the Southern Plains, driven in large part by
low-level warm advection. LLJ will strengthen markedly this evening
across northwest TX into southwest KS, aiding widespread elevated
thunderstorms within a diffluent high-level flow regime. Leading
edge of large-scale forcing, with the upper trough, is spreading
across eastern NM, and this will eventually spread across the high
Plains, further aiding convection.

00z sounding at MAF exhibited substantial MUCAPE (1300 J/kg) along
the cool side of the boundary, as did FWD but with weaker mid-level
lapse rates. Primary corridor for surface-based convection is
expected from near the international border (DRT), across the
Edwards Plateau, into the Big Country tonight. A few supercells are
currently noted along this zone, and this should persist much of the
night. Earlier thoughts regarding the potential for severe continue.

...Darrow.. 11/08/2024

$$

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