Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 07 2024 21:05:35

AWUS01 KWNH 072105
FFGMPD
TXZ000-OKZ000-080300-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1137
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
404 PM EST Thu Nov 07 2024

Areas affected...Parts of North Texas to Southwest Oklahoma

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 072103Z - 080300Z

SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms capable of producing heavy
rainfall that results in areas of excessive rainfall will become
more numerous during the afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION...An increase in the coverage of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to continue this afternoon and evening
in a region of low level convergent flow while the flow aloft
becomes increasingly difluent/divergent.  With the low level flow
tapping an airmass with precipitable water values at or above 1.5
inches gets drawn towards the region of low level
convergence...any convection in the area should become
increasingly efficient rainfall producers.

Moisture transport will be working in tandem with MLCAPE
values approaching 1000 J/kg and the approach of a low level
surface warm front later in the afternoon as shown by the 12Z HREF
and latest HRRR runs...helping to provide a focus for the
organized convection.

The expectation is that risk of excessive rainfall will initially
be widely scattered and tied more to rainfall rates.=20
However...the synoptic scale forcing of upper level divergence
combined with the mid and low level mesoscale forcing suggests
that the risk of excessive rainfall will continue to grow in
coverage for the remainder of the afternoon and into the evening.

Bann

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!=
DZ3fjg!9LO1tGJzq498dPI3ufT-sKRcmiHD91MR6OKGTMXeqC4ZCEQtdmcqSX_fO20Vo4lhExeh=
rOO_1_B7vPIC5YvXLJSgusM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...AMA...FWD...LUB...OUN...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

LAT...LON   36330047 35389891 34019734 32729703 32139698=20
            31519752 31889892 32489972 33080014 33500051=20
            34260098 35340122=20

=3D =3D =3D
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