Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 07 2024 20:00:38

ACUS01 KWNS 072000
SWODY1
SPC AC 071959

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0159 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 072000Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

....SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

....20Z Update...
Primary change to the outlook was to adjust tornado probabilities
along the surface boundary in central Texas. Storm coverage still
appears it will be isolated, but low-level shear would favor some
tornado risk. Elsewhere, only minor adjustments were made to the
general thunder area. See the previous discussion for additional
details.

...Wendt.. 11/07/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024/

....West and Central TX...
A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through
tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave
trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX
overnight.  The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W
across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing
very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX.


Current indications are that storms will become more numerous
through the afternoon and evening across the region.  Vertical shear
profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts,
but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to
the north of the front.  Along and to the south of the boundary,
forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of
damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening.  Have
extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning
CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later
today.

$$

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