Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2216
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 07 2024 18:27:07

ACUS11 KWNS 071827
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 071826=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-071930-

Mesoscale Discussion 2216
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Areas affected...portions of central and northwestern Texas and
adjacent southwestern Oklahoma

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible=20

Valid 071826Z - 071930Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

SUMMARY...Risk for hail locally -- in the 1" to 1.75" range -- is
expected to very gradually increase over the next few hours.  WW
issuance is not anticipated in the short term, though may be
considered if storms increase more rapidly in coverage/intensity
than currently anticipated.

DISCUSSION...Latest water vapor loop and mid-level height field
indicates a well-defined low centered over Arizona.  Downstream,
across the southern High Plains, strong/diffluent flow is in place
-- supporting a zone of favorable/enhanced low-level warm
advection/southeasterly flow atop a relatively cool/stable boundary
layer.

Within this zone of favorable quasi-geostrophic ascent, a gradual
ramp-up in storm coverage and intensity has been observed over the
past hour or so, with a couple of strong cells now over the western
North Texas/Big Country region.  With ample elevated CAPE indicated
(averaging 750 to 1250 J/kg), and veering/increasing flow through
the cloud-bearing layer, organized storms -- a few with mid-level
rotation -- are suggested by this background environment.  While the
overall risk does not warrant serious WW consideration at this time,
we will continue to closely monitor what should be a gradual ramp-up
in storm coverage over the next several hours.

...Goss/Hart.. 11/07/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!5oDgDhJH4RgdgbaTq3Ky7x3vp63r223k6v2exxRmNN4OMVnok8-uSncnRabeUQ-lPLkymwdhG=
l_fZ4k3udUUEmZEnT8$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   34820163 35110071 34849973 34049805 33269747 32059723
            31269770 31029929 31180019 32390054 34820163=20


=3D =3D =3D
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