Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Thu Nov 07 2024 17:30:07 ACUS02 KWNS 071730 SWODY2 SPC AC 071728 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH TX... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early/mid evening Friday across parts of central to north Texas. A couple of tornadoes will be possible, along with isolated hail and damaging winds. ....Texas... The Marginal Risk has been expanded somewhat with this outlook, but higher severe probabilities may eventually be needed for some part of central/north TX, if a mesoscale corridor of greater potential becomes apparent. A deep mid/upper-level cyclone will move north-northeastward from NM into the central High Plains on Friday. A weak surface low is forecast to move from parts of western north TX into western KS. A trailing outflow-reinforced cold front will move eastward across parts of central/north TX through the day and into the evening. Rich low-level moisture will be in place along/east of the front across parts of TX, though a surface ridge extending from the Midwest into the Mid-South will limit the northward extent of substantial moisture return. A diffuse warm front will likely become established somewhere across north TX, with low 60s F dewpoints to the north of the this front, and upper 60s to low 70s F dewpoints south of the front. Widespread convection will likely be ongoing Friday morning across parts of west TX/OK. Favorable low-level and deep-layer shear could support an isolated severe threat with the strongest early-day storms. Diurnal redevelopment will be possible across parts of central/north TX, both within a moist warm-conveyor east of the front, and also in the vicinity of the front itself by late afternoon. While stronger low-level flow will be lifting northward away from the warm sector through the day, somewhat backed low-level flow will maintain modestly favorable low-level shear/SRH, while deep-layer shear will remain sufficient for organized convection. Rich low-level moisture will support MLCAPE of 500-1500 J/kg (greater with southward extent) across the effective warm sector during the afternoon and early evening. A few supercells could evolve along/ahead of the cold front and near/south of the effective warm front during the afternoon and evening across parts of central/north TX, with at least some threat for all severe hazards. Guidance continues to vary regarding the evolution of early-day convection and related timing of the cold front, but a mesoscale corridor of somewhat greater severe threat could evolve with time, with potential for a couple of tornadoes and isolated hail/damaging gusts. ...Dean.. 11/07/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .