Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook Corr 1
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Thu Nov 07 2024 16:44:08

ACUS01 KWNS 071644
SWODY1
SPC AC 071642

Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1042 AM CST Thu Nov 07 2024

Valid 071630Z - 081200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF WEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS...

CORRECTED FOR THUNDER LINES

....SUMMARY...
Large hail, isolated severe thunderstorm gusts, and a few tornadoes
are possible this evening and tonight across parts of west Texas.

....West and Central TX...
A large upper low will remain over the Four Corners states through
tonight, with model guidance suggesting a rather strong shortwave
trough will rotate through the base of the low and move into West TX
overnight.  The primary surface boundary currently extends E-W
across central TX and will lift northward through the day, allowing
very moist air to stream into parts of western and west-central TX.


Current indications are that storms will become more numerous
through the afternoon and evening across the region.  Vertical shear
profiles over a rather large area would support rotating updrafts,
but stable near-surface conditions will limit the severe threat to
the north of the front.  Along and to the south of the boundary,
forecast soundings suggest some concern for supercells capable of
damaging winds, hail, and a few tornadoes this evening.  Have
extended the SLGT farther northeast into the ABI area where morning
CAM solutions show the warm front and several intense storms later
today.

...Hart.. 11/07/2024

$$

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