Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 06 2024 19:44:36

ACUS01 KWNS 061944
SWODY1
SPC AC 061942

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0142 PM CST Wed Nov 06 2024

Valid 062000Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...

....SUMMARY...
A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outermost
fringes of the circulation of Hurricane Rafael, through this
evening, across the Keys and the far southwestern Florida Peninsula.

....20Z Update...
No changes are required to the prior outlook. See the previous
discussion and MD #2214 for additional details.

...Wendt.. 11/06/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1028 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024/

....South Florida and the Keys...
Hurricane Rafael will track toward/across western Cuba tonight.
Model guidance continues to trend toward weaker low-level wind
fields over south FL and shunting the risk southwestward/offshore.
Will maintain the ongoing risk areas as CAM solutions show a few
discrete cells in the outer bands of the system later this afternoon
and evening.  However, the overall risk appears to be lessening.

$$

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