Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 06 2024 19:31:18 AWUS01 KWNH 061931 FFGMPD SCZ000-GAZ000-ALZ000-070130- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1132 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 230 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 Areas affected...Central and Eastern GA...SC Midlands and Lowcountry Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 061930Z - 070130Z SUMMARY...Increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected going through the evening hours. Very heavy rainfall rates and localized areas of cell-training will result in a gradually increasing flash flood threat, and especially for the more urbanized locations. DISCUSSION...Deep layer tropical moisture transport extending well north of Hurricane Rafael is seen in CIRA-ALPW imagery advancing northwestward into the Southeast U.S. Already the PWs across much of southern GA have increased to 2.25+ inches, and some additional increase in the PWs will be expected this evening as deep layer southeast flow persists over the region. Meanwhile, this will couple with increasing boundary layer instability in vicinity of a surface trough and developing right-entrance region upper-level jet dynamics for broken areas of very heavy shower and thunderstorm activity. MLCAPE values are already locally on the order of 1000 to 1500 J/kg, and satellite imagery is showing an increasingly divergent flow pattern aloft associated with favorable placement of the upper-level jet near the Southeast U.S. Radar and satellite imagery are showing rather rapidly expanding areas of convection with cooling cloud tops across central and eastern GA, and some additional increase in coverage is expected going through the evening hours as deep layer forcing/ascent increases further which will likely include portions of the SC Midlands and Lowcountry. Some of the convection is expected to become locally very concentrated heading into the evening hours, with some potential for alignment of the activity in a cell-training manner. The 12Z HREF guidance and recent runs of the HRRR have been supporting this and suggest some impressive rainfall totals this evening, with additional heavy rainfall totals extending well into the overnight period. Given the deeply tropical environment, the rainfall rates will be extremely efficient with 2 to 3+ inch/hour rates eventually becoming likely. The cell-training concerns associated with this will favor some storm totals by mid-evening to reach as high as 3 to 6 inches. Initially with the very dry antecedent conditions, the flash flood threat will tend to be a bit conditional, and will tend to be more of a concern for the more sensitive urbanized areas. However, the flash flood threat is expected to increase further overnight as additional heavy rains develop and persist over the same area. Additional MPDs will be issued accordingly. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5rF2haKG-qNTL-6Kg23eop2qrA7ZRId4zdFWFIBe9K1ugPsaom58G_0KTODq7h_81ams= x5YvuK9vHDq8YnNvPgPAQ6w$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BMX...CAE...CHS...FFC...JAX...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33918253 33868101 33028086 31778180 31408339=20 31838466 32328510 32948489 33588379=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .