Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 06 2024 23:17:17 AWUS01 KWNH 062317 FFGMPD SCZ000-FLZ000-GAZ000-070515- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1133 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 615 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 Areas affected...Portions of the FL Panhandle...Southern and Eastern GA...SC Midlands and Lowcountry Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 062315Z - 070515Z SUMMARY...Heavy showers and thunderstorms will continue to generally increase in coverage and concentration heading into the overnight hours. There will be concerns for extreme rainfall rates and some cell-training which is expected to result in scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding. Some of this may become particularly significant and life-threatening. DISCUSSION...Deep layer tropical moisture transport continues into the Southeast U.S. well to the north of Hurricane Rafael which is currently crossing western Cuba. The latest CIRA-ALPW imagery shows strong concentrations of this tropical moisture in the low and mid-levels of the vertical column, and overall the PWs now up across the FL Panhandle into central and southern GA have risen into the 2.25 to 2.5 inch range based on some of the polar microwave and GPS data. This moisture transport continues to work in tandem with MLCAPE values of as much as 1000 to 1500 J/kg and proximity of a surface trough to promote numerous areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Radar generally shows the greatest concentrations of convection focused over areas of southern and eastern GA and into portions of the central SC. The flow aloft continues to be increasingly divergent which is showing up well in the GOES-E IR satellite imagery along with the expansion of cooling convective tops as favorable upper-level jet divergence sets up. The latest 18Z HREF guidance and HRRR solutions support locally some additional expansion of convection along with a likelihood for this activity to become increasingly concentrated and focused over areas of east-central GA and potentially edging into parts of the SC Midlands and Lowcountry heading into the overnight hours. The deeply tropical environment coupled with the level of instability and low to mid-level shear may favor some particularly high rainfall rates overnight. Some of these rates may reach 2 to 4 inches/hour and will tend to be maximized with any mesocyclone activity that occurs near the aforementioned surface trough axis. The cell-training concerns associated with these rates will favor additional rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches by midnight with locally heavier amounts possible. Dry antecedent conditions at least in the short-term will continue to locally mitigate the flash flood threat, but as these extreme rainfall rates materialize and persist into the overnight hours, there will eventually be scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding, and some of this may become significant and life-threatening. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6RoZcw210YMUGotFsTAKGFrD0NmdNnBMQ1igOKYCIYatvrAKjY92RtY2oILmuvkyqikM= JEjmKTml0zvg7GUJhF7jNGA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...CAE...CHS...FFC...GSP...JAX...TAE... ATTN...RFC...SERFC...NWC... LAT...LON 34288093 33748053 32918090 32158149 31268222=20 30418339 30288427 30828487 31858463 32988367=20 34238202=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .