Subj : DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 06 2024 17:28:01 ACUS02 KWNS 061727 SWODY2 SPC AC 061726 Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF WEST TX... ....SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of west and central Texas, with the greatest threat expected Thursday evening/night across parts of west Texas. Large hail, isolated severe gusts, and a tornado or two are all possible. ....Parts of west and central TX... A deep mid/upper-level low is forecast to move slowly eastward across AZ/NM on Thursday, before accelerating later Thursday night into early Friday morning. An expansive surface ridge will initially cover much of the western/central CONUS, though weak cyclogenesis is expected later in the period in the vicinity of an inverted surface trough over west TX. Seasonably rich surface moisture will stream westward across parts of western/central TX through the day, with increasing moisture also expected atop a relatively shallow cool/stable layer into parts of northwest TX and southwest OK by the end of the period. Elevated convection will be possible near/north of the effective warm front through the day, with isolated diurnal storm development also possible within the moistening/destabilizing warm sector. Storm coverage and the organized severe threat are expected to increase later in the evening into the overnight hours, as the low-level jet nocturnally intensifies and the mid/upper-level low approaches the region. Moderate instability and rather strong deep-layer shear will support the potential for a few supercells and organized clusters, especially across parts of the Permian Basin and Edwards Plateau regions. A threat for large hail and localized severe gusts will accompany the strongest storms. Also, while the bulk of the nocturnal convection may tend to be somewhat elevated, increasingly rich low-level moisture will support some potential for surface-based supercells near the surface trough/low, with favorably veering wind profiles supporting a threat of a tornado or two. ....Lower FL Keys... Hurricane Rafael is forecast to move westward across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday; see NHC forecasts and advisories for more information. Relatively strong low-level flow to the east of Rafael may still be in place across the lower Keys at the start of the forecast period, though weakening is expected through the day as Rafael moves away from the region. While a low-probability tornado threat cannot be ruled out across parts of the lower Keys, the magnitude of the threat from 12Z onward appears too limited for probabilities at this time. ...Dean.. 11/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .