Subj : DAY3SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Wed Nov 06 2024 08:24:00 ACUS03 KWNS 060823 SWODY3 SPC AC 060822 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CST Wed Nov 06 2024 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TO NORTH TX... ....SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible through early evening Friday across parts of south-central to north Texas. ....TX... A mid/upper low should deepen as it moves from the central NM vicinity to the central High Plains. A belt of fast mid-level flow will largely remain within the southeast arc of this cyclone. At the surface, a minor low over west TX should similarly advance north towards western KS. A cold front will arc to its south in mainly a north-south orientation through central portions of TX. Linear clusters of convection will likely be ongoing at 12Z Friday across parts of west TX near the surface cyclone. This activity will probably persist through the day, especially with northern extent where activity should largely remain elevated. This will limit surface-based destabilization north, with more prominent surface heating probable from central TX southward. Guidance differs on just how far north instability will develop. This yields uncertainty on the demarcation of the low-probability severe area where low-level to deep-layer shear will be strong. Given the north-northeast track of the upper low and associated weak surface cyclone, forcing for ascent should wane towards late day along the south-central TX portion of the front. Progressively weaker low-level shear indicates more of a hail/wind threat from central TX south. Overall setup suggests severe coverage should remain isolated into the afternoon and likely diminish after sunset. ...Grams.. 11/06/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .