Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Wed Nov 06 2024 05:32:30

ACUS01 KWNS 060532
SWODY1
SPC AC 060530

Day 1 Convective Outlook=20=20
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 061200Z - 071200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE KEYS
AND PORTIONS OF EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA...

....SUMMARY...
A couple of brief tornadoes will be possible within outer bands of
Hurricane Rafael, from late morning into the evening, across the
Keys and the far southern Peninsula of Florida.

....Hurricane Rafael...

Dominant Bermuda High will prove instrumental in the upcoming track
of Hurricane Rafael. Over the next 36hr, Rafael is forecast to
continue its northwest trajectory across Cuba into the southeastern
Gulf Basin. Low-level shear will gradually increase across the Keys
into extreme southern FL, and outer convective bands will begin to
affect this portion of FL, especially later this afternoon/evening.
Current track (reference https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.g=
ov__;!!DZ3fjg!4emcm8TJuC_0Q-wjxOBD0QocTcA-nLTF_nlBFayShxMKPrZBF4G2DzeQidNzs=
g0Wf-Sr_lSH7Xd9rXIOyx8ym0saSCU$ ) suggests severe
probabilities will not need to be expanded north across the
Peninsula as strongest shear will remain offshore across the Gulf
Basin. Some tornado threat can be expected with strongest, more
organized convection, especially across the Keys.

...Darrow/Weinman.. 11/06/2024

$$

=3D =3D =3D
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