Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 05 2024 19:59:00

ACUS01 KWNS 051958
SWODY1
SPC AC 051957

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

....SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across
a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to
southern Wisconsin.

....20Z Update...
With the primary mid-level forcing moving away from the ArkLaMiss,
storm coverage should generally remain more isolated through the
remainder of the afternoon. Furthermore, regional VAD profiles
suggest low-level shear have been decreasing with time. Given these
observational trends, tornado probabilities have been reduced in the
region.

The marginal risk across Wisconsin has been adjusted based on
surface observations. A line of shallow convection moving east
through western Wisconsin may produce isolated strong/damaging winds
as it moves into areas where at least muted heating has occurred.
KMKX VAD suggests strong enough flow in the lowest 1-2 km to support
this risk.

...Wendt.. 11/05/2024

..PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024/

....LA/MS...
A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the
primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into
central LA.  Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and
ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and
mid level rotation.  Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the
day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few
hours late this morning and early afternoon.  Therefore have added a
small SLGT risk area.  Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details
on this environment.

....AR/TN/KY/IN...
A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across
eastern AR.  Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may
maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks
northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley.  Visible satellite
imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing
some heating and destabilization.  Also, low level wind fields will
remain rather strong ahead of the convection.  This may be
sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

.....WI...
A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later
this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI.  Widespread
clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for
locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period.

$$

= = =
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM.

--- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux
 * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105)

.