Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 05 2024 16:20:59

ACUS01 KWNS 051620
SWODY1
SPC AC 051619

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1019 AM CST Tue Nov 05 2024

Valid 051630Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
LOUISIANA....

....SUMMARY...
Locally damaging winds and perhaps a tornado or two may occur across
a portion of the Lower and Mid Mississippi Valleys, and central to
southern Wisconsin.

....LA/MS...
A large upper trough is present today over the central US, with the
primary surface boundary extending from eastern AR southward into
central LA.  Scattered thunderstorms have been occurring along and
ahead of this boundary, including several storms exhibiting low and
mid level rotation.  Winds aloft are expected to weaken through the
day, but there is a continued chance of isolated tornadoes for a few
hours late this morning and early afternoon.  Therefore have added a
small SLGT risk area.  Please refer to MCD #2213 for further details
on this environment.

....AR/TN/KY/IN...
A narrow line of thunderstorms is noted along the boundary across
eastern AR.  Several morning CAM solutions suggest this line may
maintain some character through the afternoon and it tracks
northeastward across parts of the mid MS Valley.  Visible satellite
imagery shows breaks in the clouds across this region, providing
some heating and destabilization.  Also, low level wind fields will
remain rather strong ahead of the convection.  This may be
sufficient for locally gusty/damaging wind gusts this afternoon.

.....WI...
A few low-topped showers and thunderstorms will likely form later
this afternoon near a deepening surface low over WI.  Widespread
clouds will limit destabilization, but there is some potential for
locally gusty/damaging winds during the peak-heating period.

...Hart/Supinie.. 11/05/2024

$$

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