Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 05 2024 05:35:26

ACUS01 KWNS 050535
SWODY1
SPC AC 050533

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1133 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

....THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

....SUMMARY...
A brief tornado or two and locally damaging winds may occur across a
portion of the Sabine to Lower Mississippi Valleys, and central to
southern Wisconsin.

....WI...

Strong mid-level speed max will translate across eastern KS into
southwest WI by 18z before advancing into ON later in the evening.
This feature will assist a weak surface low that is expected to
track from southern IA into southwest WI by early afternoon. Latest
model guidance suggests weak buoyancy will develop ahead of the
short wave and forecast soundings suggest shallow SBCAPE will
develop by 21z as surface temperatures warm into the upper 50s.
While surface parcels will struggle to attain levels necessary for
lightning, strongly sheared, shallow convection may exhibit signs of
organization, or perhaps even some weak rotation. A brief, weak
tornado or some gusty winds may accompany this shallow convection
for a few hours this afternoon.

....Lower MS Valley...

Negligible height changes are expected during the day1 period as the
primary short-wave trough/speed max eject into the upper
Midwest/Great Lakes this afternoon. As a result, trailing front will
likely remain draped across the Mid South-lower MS Valley-lower
Sabine River Valley through the period. This boundary will serve as
the focus for potential convective development within an environment
that is not particularly unstable, but adequately sheared for
organized convection. Given the poor lapse rates, and the absence of
appreciable forcing, only scattered, mostly weak convection is
expected. Even so, some risk for gusty winds and perhaps a brief
tornado are the primary concerns.

...Darrow/Weinman.. 11/05/2024

$$

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