Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Tue Nov 05 2024 03:57:02 AWUS01 KWNH 050356 FFGMPD ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050915- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1127 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1056 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...northeastern TX/southeastern OK into western AR and central/southern MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 050354Z - 050915Z SUMMARY...A slow moving axis of heavy rain will result in continued flash flooding from northeastern TX/southeastern OK into western AR and central/southern MO through 09Z. Rainfall rates of 1-2 in/hr should result in an additional 2-4 inches of rain (locally higher), atop saturated soils. DISCUSSION....03Z radar imagery and surface observations placed a SW to NE axis of thunderstorms from northeastern TX into northwestern AR and southern/eastern MO, out ahead of a cold front located west of the convective line. The convective line was nearly coincident with the front over northeastern TX, but was located increasingly east of the cold front into AR/MO as one moves north, located along an outflow boundary. The orientation of the convective axis matching the mean southwesterly steering flow has allowed for training with MRMS-derived rainfall rates of 1 to locally over 2 in/hr since 00Z. 03Z SPC mesoanalysis data showed MLCAPE was only about 500 J/kg along and immediately ahead of the convective line/outflow boundary but anomalous precipitable water values of 1.7 to 1.9 inches and divergence aloft within the right-entrance region of a 110-130 kt jet max over the middle/upper MS River Valley was leading to enhanced lift and efficient rainfall production. Infrared satellite imagery showed a gradual warming of cloud tops over the region since 00Z, but occasional bursts of colder cloud tops continued to occur. Following trends in radar imagery over the past few hours and understanding that height falls downstream of a slow moving upper trough axis over the TX Panhandle will only gradually push off to the east through 09Z, the axis of heavy rain is only expected to slowly shift eastward. There could be relatively faster movement with the rainfall axis located in MO compared to locations farther south, but regeneration and training of thunderstorms to the southwest could allow for a prolonged duration of heavy rain for some locations as cells move back to the north. Some gradual weakening of CAPE is anticipated through the night but strong forcing for ascent should maintain periods of high rainfall rates with 1 to 2 in/hr (locally higher) gradually translating toward the east through 09Z. Given heavy rain which has impacted northwestern AR over the past 48 hours, and the sensitive terrain of the Ozarks, additional flash flooding will be likely, with locally significant impacts possible through 09Z. Additional totals of 2 to 4 inches (locally higher) can be expected, with northern AR into southern MO possibly seeing the greatest additional rainfall over the next few hours. Otto ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9JlLNBDATprWAX3QV5Kjx_voQ0HDTuZk7kisiL1bP31h81pfjBnBFO9rUhxzWVZ7DcIQ= vx-V4-OoXeJgJaigPaqrzQw$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LSX...LZK...PAH...SGF...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39069025 38559023 36609106 34879217 33149390=20 32219511 32499587 33739551 35329445 36869299=20 38639153=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .