Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2212
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Tue Nov 05 2024 02:14:55

ACUS11 KWNS 050214
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 050214=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-050345-

Mesoscale Discussion 2212
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0814 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...South-central Missouri and portions of western
Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 705...

Valid 050214Z - 050345Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 705 continues.

SUMMARY...The potential for embedded severe gusts and perhaps a
brief tornado continues across portions of Tornado Watch 705. A
local watch extension or a new watch could eventually be needed,
though it is unclear how long the severe risk will persist.

DISCUSSION...A northeast/southwest-oriented semi-continuous
convective line continues to advance slowly east-northeastward from
south-central MO into western AR, with additional
warm-advection-driven cells immediately ahead of the line. Regional
VWP data depicts around 50 kt of 0-6 km shear oriented parallel to
the convective line, generally supporting a continued linear mode.
While meager instability is generally limiting updraft intensity,
upper 60s to lower 70s dewpoints (decreasing with northward extent)
and a 50-55 kt low-level jet (and related warm
advection/clockwise-curved hodographs) may support a continued
severe threat for the next couple of hours. The primary concerns are
embedded severe gusts and perhaps a brief tornado or two (both
embedded in the line and with any discrete cells ahead of the line).
It is unclear if a local watch extension or new watch will be
needed, though convective trends are being monitored.

...Weinman/Gleason.. 11/05/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_eax5uNCwgHmiE1EiGF6i59AmaU0PAtI5yo2UksA62Znpqu-x39smndDLtLKy0gAlLaK35OEz=
OYR4C6xeciZxfalpoU$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...TSA...

LAT...LON   34969455 37089265 37649234 38059240 38069209 37789161
            37289149 36619180 34799346 34599393 34609454 34969455=20


=3D =3D =3D
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