Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2209
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 23:05:52

ACUS11 KWNS 042305
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 042305=20
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-050000-

Mesoscale Discussion 2209
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0505 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...northeast Texas...far southeast
Oklahoma...southwest Arkansas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 704...

Valid 042305Z - 050000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704 continues.

SUMMARY...A tornado threat is likely to persist over northeast
Texas, far southeast Oklahoma, and southwest Arkansas this evening.

DISCUSSION...Convection within a confluence line beneath the 50 kt
low-level jet has gradually strengthened, with supercells now
evident. This zone remains in a favorable shear and instability
space, with 0-1 SRH over 250 m2/s2 and high surface theta-e values
ahead of the cold front. Surface observations also indicate winds
gusting over 25 kt, indicative of the coupled boundary layer and
expected full incorporation of available low-level shear. As such, a
new watch will be needed for parts of the region, with threat
persisting until the cold front pushes through.

...Jewell.. 11/04/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_yruyg3fwPfmFVtgMEkQ3EXd9a79OyUiqWv2OXBEbCioaMc0ylB9HUTHxt5VDbgt1ICObt5m_=
Ssfh78WsL7q_PrY3kM$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...FWD...

LAT...LON   32269621 32539610 34389521 34509500 34489397 34239360
            33569379 32959397 32029476 32009564 32269621=20


=3D =3D =3D
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