Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 22:21:57 AWUS01 KWNH 042221 FFGMPD ILZ000-MOZ000-050420- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1126 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 520 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...Central and Eastern MO...West-Central and Southwest IL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 042220Z - 050420Z SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms going well into the evening hours will maintain strong concerns for instances of flash flooding. DISCUSSION....GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction with dual-pol radar shows broken areas of heavy showers and thunderstorms arriving across west-central to southwest MO with separate areas of convection noted farther east across portions of central and eastern MO. The activity continues to be strongly influenced by strong warm air advection/isentropic ascent and moisture transport across the region. This continues to be facilitated by persistent and strong deep layer southerly flow out ahead of a deep layer trough/closed low edging out into the southern High Plains from the southern Rockies. A southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts remains in place and is nosing up across much of western AR and southern MO, and this is overrunning a warm front seen lifting north currently through northwest AR and southern MO. PWs across the region are locally as high as 1.75 inches which again are on the order of 2 to 3+ standard deviations above normal for this time of the year. This will continue to favor an environment conducive for enhanced rainfall rates going through the evening hours and especially with the low-level jet yielding a gradual and steady increase in instability. MLCAPE values have risen to 500 to 1000 J/kg across all of southern MO, with values locally approaching 1500 J/kg across southwest MO. This coupled with strong forcing and shear parameters going through the evening hours will strongly support additional bands or clusters of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Areas of central and eastern MO north of the warm front will have concerns heading through this evening for repeating rounds of convection and cell-training that will yielding enhanced rainfall totals. Some of this may also impact areas of west-central to southwest IL. These additional rains will be on top of the earlier rainfall and will be falling on already very sensitive soil conditions. The latest HRRR guidance and HREF footprint suggests additional rainfall amounts through late this evening of 2 to 4 inches with isolated heavier amounts not out of the question. Given the environment, these rains are expected to result in additional instances of flash flooding. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!8XP-KcNTm18TTlniNf-nojK7YjFoVdX-mOMZdeZe4gtlEdupk7aUq7NtbsJxcMKEG219= bY51OK6YzlSrLwojO64KCMM$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...ILX...LSX...SGF... ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 39809122 39759030 39488971 39088952 38648982=20 38189049 37799129 37159206 37529232 37949298=20 37939403 38569395 39029351 39409287 39599236=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .