Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 21:56:24 AWUS01 KWNH 042156 FFGMPD MOZ000-ARZ000-TXZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-050355- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1125 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 455 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...Eastern OK...West-Central to Northwest AR...Southwest MO Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 042155Z - 050355Z SUMMARY...Well organized bands of showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening hours. Heavy rainfall rates and wet antecedent conditions are expected to result in scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding this evening. Some locally significant and life-threatening impacts will be possible. DISCUSSION...A strong deep layer trough and associated closed low continues to advance very slowly across the southern Rockies and toward the southern High Plains. A strong cold front associated with this continues to gradually advance eastward with a notably unstable and highly sheared environment focused out ahead of it. Strong and well organized bands of convection are seen in GOES-E IR satellite imagery and dual-pol radar focusing across eastern OK with separate clusters of convection noted across portions of western AR and southwest MO. MLCAPE values ahead of the cold front over eastern OK and western AR are as high as 1500 to 2500 J/kg, and this instability axis has been gradually nosing up into areas of southwest MO over the last couple of hours. A southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts remains in place across the region, and this will drive strong moisture and instability transport through the evening hours as the cold front off to the west approaches the region. Strong and well organized bands of convection including some occasional supercell structures are expected to result in heavy rainfall totals this evening over areas of especially east-central OK, northwest AR and southwest MO. This is where there will be concerns for some cell-training and rainfall rates capable of reaching 1.5 to 2.5 inches/hour. PWs are already running locally near 1.75 inches and with the enhanced instability/shear profiles and moisture transport across the region, the rates should be efficiently high. Additional rainfall amounts by late this evening of 2 to 4 inches are expected, with isolated heavier amounts of 5+ inches possible where areas of cell-training are maximized. The experimental WoFS and latest HREF guidance generally supports these amounts on the mesoscale level. Given the additional rainfall, and the wet antecedent conditions, scattered to numerous areas of flash flooding are likely. Locally significant and life-threatening impacts will be possible this evening which will include some of the more urbanized locations. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!5RRnrqCtmH0jJ4PgRf_q-XgyLodShvGl6aZ6DOvFjKTQ3fTMI8NB4UVokbbGdD88Zpzr= NR3o-GtEtqJFuY-TY8SZG7s$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...LZK...OUN...SGF...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 37939289 37459231 36839228 35819269 34899326=20 34019406 33649469 33709514 33979596 34249607=20 35289564 36289523 37209471 37819406=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .