Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 21:46:25 AWUS01 KWNH 042146 FFGMPD TXZ000-OKZ000-050345- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1124 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 445 PM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...Central to Northeast TX Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible Valid 042145Z - 050345Z SUMMARY...Showers and thunderstorms with very heavy rainfall rates may produce some isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding, and especially within the more urbanized corridors heading through the evening hours. DISCUSSION...An upper-level trough and associated closed low continues to eject gradually across the southern Rockies which is driving a cold front well to the east across the southern Plains. This front has been crossing through central and northern TX this afternoon and is bumping up against a very moist and unstable environment that is characterized by MLCAPE values of 1500 to 2500 J/kg and PWs of 1.5 to 1.75 inches. A major driver of the moisture and instability transport continues to be a well-defined low-level jet that is locally reaching 40 to 50 kts, and the latest GOES-E GeoColor satellite imagery shows a substantial amount of cloud street activity ahead of the approaching cold front. Increasingly divergent flow aloft associated with the ejecting height falls/DPVA will favor convection along and just ahead of the cold front becoming more organized and widespread heading through the evening hours, and especially with the strongly favorable thermodynamic environment. A substantial level of effective bulk shear is in place that will be conducive for a combination of multicell and supercell activity that aside from severe weather hazards will be conducive for producing high rainfall rates. The convective mode along and ahead of the front will likely attain a QLCS mode in time, and with a southward extension that will eventually include areas of south-central TX including eastern portions of the Hill Country by later this evening. Rainfall rates may reach as high as 2 inches/hour with the stronger convective cores heading through the evening hours. Generally the antecedent conditions across central to northeast TX are on the dry side, but the convective evolution over the next several hours will be conducive for some 2 to 4 inch rainfall amounts which may end up being locally higher if any cell-training or cell-merger activity takes place. Some isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding will be possible and especially within the more urbanized corridors. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!9Gd0Zmw3lA-9sBhCOOjiKxYBkmKijk3RdpC194yF9odQUX4QTtkQgry53i9TbbTl3VT0= oH7y1s-uQMzHDGJeGR5JCYg$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EWX...FWD...HGX...OUN...SHV...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 33969545 33599491 32899484 31539550 30419629=20 29569746 29649834 30429842 31859741 33629645=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .