Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2205
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 19:15:20

ACUS11 KWNS 041915
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041914=20
MOZ000-ARZ000-OKZ000-KSZ000-042045-

Mesoscale Discussion 2205
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0114 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...northeast Oklahoma...southeast Kansas...Southwest
Missouri and far northern Arkansas.

Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely=20

Valid 041914Z - 042045Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing rapidly across
southeast Kansas, southwest Missouri, and far northwest Arkansas.

DISCUSSION...Surface analysis shows a warm front advancing northeast
across eastern Oklahoma to near the Oklahoma/Kansas border and far
southern Missouri. A line embedded supercell with a confirmed
tornado is moving through northeast Oklahoma and should persist
northeast through the afternoon/evening. The area where the line of
storms interacts with the warm front will likely continue to be a
favorable location for tornado development. In addition, any mature
supercells which develop ahead of the line could also pose a tornado
threat given the favorable low-level shear profile which is expected
to improve through the evening.

...Bentley/Hart.. 11/04/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!_S8aEaO8cveozOGRSIQ3TlFMJecrllWNpBz4MzvOR8wx5npQXrqoqgoNvpMJFKCa7--joXqxO=
-Hm2MbO1hU7vfvd0Rs$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...

LAT...LON   36989600 37689533 38109487 38159334 37539289 36609296
            35999325 35839435 35829471 36989600=20


=3D =3D =3D
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