Subj : MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 2204
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 19:07:50

ACUS11 KWNS 041907
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 041907=20
TXZ000-OKZ000-042030-

Mesoscale Discussion 2204
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0107 PM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Areas affected...Northern Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 704...

Valid 041907Z - 042030Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 704 continues.

SUMMARY...A corridor of higher tornado potential may be developing
across northern Texas, including the Dallas/Fort-Worth metro area,
based on storm and environmental trends.

DISCUSSION...Large-scale ascent associated with the primary upper
low across eastern NM/western TX is beginning to overspread central
TX as evident by an increase in cellular convection across the warm
sector over the past 1-2 hours. More recently, a few cells have show
signs of robust intensification within a corridor of higher MLCAPE
where temperatures have climbed into the low 80s with low 70s
dewpoints. The FWD VWP is sampling 0-1 km SRH values around 150
m2/s2, which, in conjunction with MLCAPE values upwards of 2000
J/kg, is supporting STP values between 1-2 across the region. A
couple of robust supercells will likely emerge over the next 1-2
hours with an increasing large hail and tornado threat (including
the potential for a strong tornado) prior to the passage of a
outflow-dominant squall line from the west.

...Moore.. 11/04/2024

....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.spc.noaa.gov__;!!DZ3fj=
g!4hAewocvKyDaHIxI4KSqvWo7tjJGGVj3CKxDKQSfwHnLByXKSrJXelr3EYg7ORFPy6ImtIqlh=
uWhS2EbQhX9E3RspQ0$  for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD...OUN...

LAT...LON   32119794 33159736 33679698 33799653 33859613 33799571
            33659552 33359546 32899563 32479598 32199623 31949648
            31809675 31709709 31679738 31629761 31709788 31919808
            32119794=20


=3D =3D =3D
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