Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook
To   : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu
From : COD Weather Processor
Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 16:13:51

ACUS01 KWNS 041613
SWODY1
SPC AC 041612

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1012 AM CST Mon Nov 04 2024

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z

....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST TX...EASTERN
OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

....SUMMARY...
Tornadoes (some strong), large hail, and severe thunderstorm gusts,
are expected today into tonight from the Southern Plains into the
Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley.

....OK/TX/MO/AR...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a deep upper trough over the
southern Rockies, with a strong mid/upper level jet rounding the
base of the trough and moving into west TX.  At the surface, the
primary boundary extends from central OK southward into west-central
TX.  Strong southerly low-level winds to the east of the surface
boundary will maintain a moist and moderately unstable air mass over
a relatively wide area, leading to a rather active severe weather
event later today as the upper speed max approaches.

Morning convection and associated boundaries are complicating the
forecast over central OK, leading to uncertainty how far west the
intense convection can form.  Nevertheless, pockets of daytime
heating and dewpoints in the upper 60s will result in rapid
thunderstorm development by early afternoon across east-central OK
and parts of north TX.  These storms will likely be a mix of
linear/bowing structures and discrete supercells.  Forecast
soundings suggest low and deep layer shear profiles more than
sufficient for tornadoes, along with damaging winds and some hail.
Strong tornadoes will be possible.  The activity will spread
northeastward into the evening into parts of western MO/AR, with a
continued risk of damaging winds and tornadoes (some strong) along
the primary convective line, and discrete storms ahead of the line.

...Hart/Moore.. 11/04/2024

$$

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