Subj : MESO: Nws Weather Prediction Center College Park Md To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 15:35:18 AWUS01 KWNH 041535 FFGMPD ILZ000-MOZ000-ARZ000-042133- Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 1122 NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 1034 AM EST Mon Nov 04 2024 Areas affected...Northern AR...South-Central to Southeast MO...Southwest IL Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely Valid 041533Z - 042133Z SUMMARY...Additional rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms which will occasionally repeat over the same area will continue to foster areas of flash flooding heading into the afternoon hours. DISCUSSION....GOES-E IR satellite imagery in conjunction with dual-pol radar shows a fairly large broken area of heavy showers and thunderstorms impacting portions of northern AR through southeast MO and a small part of southwest IL. The activity continues to be strongly influenced by enhanced warm air advection/isentropic ascent and moisture transport across the region with deep layer southerly flow in place out ahead of a deep layer trough/closed low gradually ejecting east out of the southern Rockies. A southerly low-level jet of 40 to 50 kts in the 850/925 mb layer is noted in the latest VWP data across central to northern AR and across southeast MO and southern IL which is acting as a conduit for the poleward transfer of Gulf of Mexico moisture. PWs across the region are locally as high as 1.75 inches which are on the order of 2 to 3+ standard deviations above normal for this time of the year. This anomalous moisture environment will continue to favor a well-defined excessive rainfall threat with enhanced rainfall rates given the warm air advection and proximity of at least modest instability. MUCAPE values are on the order of 500 to 1000 J/kg up across northern AR through southeast MO and this is supporting a largely elevated convective environment at this time. Some increase in instability is expected going through mid-afternoon and this should favor some increase in the rainfall rates which will be capable of reaching 1 to 2 inches/hour with the stronger storms. Going through the mid-afternoon hours, additional rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches will be possible, with the heaviest totals most likely over south-central to southeast MO based on the latest 12Z HREF guidance. The very wet/saturated antecedent conditions that are in place coupled with the arrival of additional rounds of heavy rain over the same area will continue to promote additional areas of flash flooding with locally considerable runoff concerns. Orrison ....Please see https://urldefense.com/v3/__http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov__;!!= DZ3fjg!6GXloCu9o8ZI23AqUpAPdrA1vlbzXXVEvhxpVyv55LOvfXK-763HvBckSdXnu4BCvxz1= AIF6aQnKNba119zkyBfpiPA$ for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...MEG...PAH...SGF...TSA... ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...MBRFC...NCRFC...NWC... LAT...LON 38619040 38578962 37988941 37109001 36469070=20 35479239 35129354 35689421 36669363 37929201=20 =20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20=20 =3D =3D =3D To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .