Subj : DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook To : wx-storm@lists.illinois.edu From : COD Weather Processor Date : Mon Nov 04 2024 05:45:49 ACUS01 KWNS 040545 SWODY1 SPC AC 040544 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1144 PM CST Sun Nov 03 2024 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ....THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI... ....SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms, associated with tornadoes, large hail, and wind damage, are likely today from the Southern Plains north-northeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. A few of the tornadoes could be strong. ....Southern Plains to mid Mississippi Valley... Strong upper trough is currently located over the Four Corners region. This feature is forecast to advance into the southern Rockies by the start of the day1 period, then shift into the southern High Plains by 18z as a 90kt 500mb speed max translates across northern Mexico/west TX into western OK. During the overnight hours, the mid-level speed max should increase in excess of 100kt as it moves into northwest MO. Latest model guidance suggests a surface low will develop over northwest TX by daybreak, then track into central OK by 18z, ultimately lifting into southern IA late, in concert with the 500mb speed max. Early this morning, leading edge of large-scale forcing appears to be spreading across eastern NM into the TX High Plains. Boundary-layer moisture is surging northwest into this region as LLJ strengthens in response to the approaching trough. Deeper convective updrafts are now developing south-east of LBB, and this activity is expected to increase in areal coverage/intensity, leading into the start of the day1 period. Latest thinking is scattered-numerous thunderstorms will be ongoing at sunrise ahead of the mid-level speed max within a focused zone of low-level convergence. Upper 60s surface dew points should advance into southern OK ahead of the surface low and forecast soundings exhibit negligible inhibition with substantial MLCAPE (>2000 J/kg) shortly after sunrise. Additionally, 0-3 SRH should be quite strong (400 m2/s2) as low-level warm advection will remain strong across the southern High Plains due to a 50+kt LLJ. While numerous updrafts are likely early, supercells are expected. Have increased severe probabilities across this portion of the southern Plains to reflect the uncapped, strongly sheared/buoyant profiles at the start of the period. Tornadoes are possible with this activity, along with hail/wind. Strong, dynamic system will eject across the central/southern Plains and this will encourage a notable surface front/dry line into the I-35 corridor by 20z, extending into north-central TX. Weak inhibition should lead to at least scattered strong/severe thunderstorms developing south along the front/dry line across TX, while more concentrated thunderstorms will spread across OK toward the Ozarks, due to focused low-level warm advection. Environmental parameters strongly favor supercells, though a considerable amount of convection may result in complex storm modes from OK into MO/northwest AR. Tornadoes can be expected with this activity, some possibly strong, along with some hail/wind threat. Strong-severe convection will spread across central MO ahead of the short wave late in the period where less unstable air mass will begin to impede updraft strength. It's not entirely clear how far organized severe will extend downstream, but weak buoyancy over the mid MS Valley suggests this will be across northeast MO. ...Darrow/Weinman.. 11/04/2024 $$ = = = To unsubscribe from WX-STORM and you already have a login, go to https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link. Otherwise email Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-STORM. --- SBBSecho 3.20-Linux * Origin: capitolcityonline.net * Telnet/SSH:2022/HTTP (1:2320/105) .